Let’s Make Some (More) Predictions: Jon’s take on what will happen tonight

The day has finally come!  And we want you to know how it will go down.


Best Picture: No Country for Old Men. My movie of the year and the Academy’s as well.

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen. If you could give this award out based on the direction of one scene, it’d be P.T. Anderson for There Will Be Blood‘s final showdown. But the Coens brought brilliance to the entirety of No Country, so this is their category.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. At the Newsweek Oscar roundtable, George Clooney said of Day-Lewis that all actors “bow to this f*cker right here.” The Academy does too.

Best Actress: Julie Christie. It’s a damn shame for Ellen Page that the Academy likes an old actor’s last great performance more than a young actor’s first. But for that reason, Christie gets gold here.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Javier Bardem. Hopefully they present this award late in the show so Javy has time to get well and drunk and finally admit his homoerotic passion for Josh Brolin.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Cate Blanchett. This is the easily the most up-in-the-air category of the night. But I think Cate will take it — and not just because she plays the opposite gender. (By that logic, John Travolta’s Hairspray performance would earn him a supporting statuette as well.) It’s because she nails Dylan to a tee.

Best Animated Film: Ratatouille. Perhaps the year’s best film masquerading as an animated movie.

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody. I saw a news special last night that said Cody is wearing 1.2 million dollar shoes to the show (no, not clear heels). No designer in their right mind would back such a newcomer if he wasn’t sure that she’d grace the stage to accept this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen. I’m pulling for Sarah Polley in this category, because she took a short story and both screenwrote and directed Away From Her. But alas, the Coens are previous winners here, and there’s no rule that says adding your own material makes a better “adaption.”

Best Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters. Foreign language film buffs are angry that Russia’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days was left off this list, but that leaves it wide open for The Counterfeiters — a touching WWII story.

Best Documentary: Sicko. Please, Academy, put Michael Moore on stage so he can say something that would make Al Qaeda blush.

Achievement in Art Direction: There Will Be Blood. P.T. Anderson & co. will do their best to split the night with the Coens, and victories in smaller categories like this one will help.

Achievement in Cinematography: No Country for Old Men. You can contend that No Country doesn’t deserve the plethora of awards it’s lined up to win, but this artistic category belongs to the film. It’s a cinematographic masterpiece — and will be the first win in nine nominations for cinematographer Roger Deakins.

Achievement in Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Last year’s winner, Marie Antionette, follows roughly the same logic as Elizabeth: Who needs good dialogue when we can play dress-up?!?

Achievement in Film Editing: There Will Be Blood. If No Country wins, the Academy will accept the award on behalf of Roderick Jaynes — the film editor who the Coens made up because they’re so damn kooky. But Jaynes won’t win.

Achievement in Makeup: La Vie en Rose. That said, some poor award presenter will have to read the name Norbit and segue to an ensuing clip. (So many good ones to choose from.) Expect a Jon Stewart joke.

Best Original Score: Atonement. In this category, there’s no There Will Be Blood, no Into the Wild, not even The Assassination of Jesse James — which had a haunting score. So count your lucky stars, Atonement.

Best Original Song: “Falling Slowly,” Once. The last time Jon Stewart hosted, this award went to Three 6 Mafia for “It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp.” So expect “Falling Slowly” to win, which has roughly the same lyrical message.

Achievement in Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men. If you worked on the set of No Country and somehow walk away tonight without a statuette, you need a better agent.

Achievement in Sound Mixing: There Will Be Blood. The scene in TWBB where the oil well blows up has so many haunting sounds that Stevie Wonder would scare.

Achievement in Visual Effects: The Golden Compass. I don’t think I’m alone when I say that the effects in the final scene of Transformers were clunky and confusing. That said, I’m not sure how many people who watched Transformers actually made it to the final scene.


3 Responses to Let’s Make Some (More) Predictions: Jon’s take on what will happen tonight

  1. Bryan says:

    So that I don’t have to put up another post with my picks, I’ll leave them here.

    Best Picture: No Country for Old Men. Sad.

    Best Director: Coens. Sad.

    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. Would win Best Actor for any year in the last decade.

    Best Actress: Julie Christie.

    Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem. Though I will say this will be one of the areas that might surprise.

    Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan.

    Best Adapted Screenplay: P.T. Anderson. So they give him something.

    Best Original Screenplay: Diablo. So they give Juno something.

    Best Animated Film: Ratatouille.

    Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood. Too beautiful not to win.

    Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Assassination of Jesse James.

    Costume Design: Elizabeth: the Golden Age. They love those old elaborate movies in this category.

    Film Editing: Bourne Ultimatum. Won the ACE.

    Makeup: La Vie En Rose.

    Original Score: Atonement. Amazing score.

    Original Song: Falling Slowly.

    Sound Editing: Transformers.

    Sound Mixing: Transformers.

    VIsual Effects: Transformers.

    Foreign Language: The Counterfeiters.

    Documentary: Sicko.

  2. […] it wasn’t going to happen; but now it’s back on and we’ve made our predictions (here and here). Stay with us for the next three hours for extensive Oscar coverage, including Bryan and […]

  3. patrick says:

    just saw no country for old men; it’s unassumingly unconventional and yet (thankfully) never over the top. the Coen brothers deserve their oscars, well done indeed.

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